Monthly Archives: July 2021

COVID VACCINATION ANALYSIS

Analysis of data reported by Los Angeles County

We compare the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations and present the health and mortality benefits of vaccination in the above table. Although the data are from Los Angeles County, the comparisons between vaccinated vs unvaccinated people are strongly in favor of vaccination. We believe that presenting the results in this manner makes it clear that vaccination results in fewer infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

The Input Data

Admittedly it is not a totally fair comparison since the vaccinations are skewed by demographics. Further, the partially vaccinated people are bundled in with the unvaccinated people, while there would ideally be three categories: vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated. Of the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people, there is a breakdown into three age groups. Actually,  because of the three factors: (1) the lumping together of the partially vaccinated into the unvaccinated population, (2) the fact that children under the age of 12 are currently not given vaccines, and (3) even if the children were exposed to the virus they are less likely to become infected or to require hospitalization, it cannot be avoided that the analysis will underrepresent the danger of unvaccination. In other words the severity is even greater than indicated by sheer numbers. However, the numbers differ so greatly that the message remains unchanged: Get your vaccinations!

The Chart

To understand the chart, note that there are five sections. The first four lines give the raw data: population size, numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

The second section gives the numbers data normalized by population size and are scaled as numbers per million people in the population. 

The third section gives the population size for one case in each category. For example, there are: 1 case per 745 vaccinated people, compared with 1 case per 18 people among the unvaccinated aged 12 and older. The overall average is 1 case per 42 people. If you know 18 unvaccinated adults, it is likely that one of them will get Covid. Compare that with having to know 745 vaccinated people in order to know one case of infection.

The fourth section gives the % of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the entire population of 10,039,107 in LA County. That is, 48.4% of LA County are vaccinated, etc.

Finally, the fifth section gives the marginal rates. Example: the cases of the unvaccinated age 12 and over make up 5.6% of the county population. 

The final column presents the comparisons: the ratios of the numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths of the unvaccinated to those of the vaccinated. The analysis shows that the unvaccinated are, compared to the vaccinated :

– 42x more likely to be infected

– 164x more likely to be hospitalized

– 410x more likely to die

Remarks 

It is clear that vaccination makes a vital difference. These ratios are actually conservative since the unvaccinated group include populations which are partially vaccinated as well as children under the age of 12, both subgroups which lessen the severity numbers of the danger.

Based on this, an adult not being vaccinated means you have at least 42X the chance of being infected, 164X the chance of being hospitalized, and 410X the chance of dying. 

If you could do something that would eliminate 99.76% of the chance that you die from one of the leading causes of death, why wouldn’t you do that?

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